Ford to take back 2nd place in the Auto market

A very smart man and successful once told me: "1+1 always equals 2. When it doesn't then something is wrong."

Today we see that 40 people have already filed a lawsuit against Toyota (TM). This will most likely be a class action lawsuit. Knowing how many Toyota's have been sold in the country just in the last year you can almost guarantee that there will be more people coming forward.

Then we have the insurance companies. You have to love this business as Warren Buffet has in becoming the wealthiest man in the country because of it. The why is simple.

Send me money every month, quarter or year and I'll pay for your accidents if something happens. If it does maybe I'll pay you and maybe I won't. If there's a way for me to keep you in court for the next how ever many years maybe I'll get lucky and you'll die. Then I just keep everything. Either that or make a settle far below what the contract says. Anyone who has had to deal with Health, Life, Auto, Homeowners, etc. insurance knows that getting paid on a claim is more difficult than trying to win a World Series except of course if your my New York Yankees.

We see Ford's (F) stock still under pressure in my opinion because of the selling pressure from the filing made by State Street on behalf of VEBA. 109+ million  shares hitting the market will create that. On the other hand Toyota (TM) has been moving up because of what may seem like an oversold situation and a 15% drop which has now retraced itself up from $70 to $77.

Well 1+1 is not equaling 2. TM has the bad news and going up. Ford has nothing but good news and going down or trading flat.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tm                 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f

Today we can see the future and Ford is poised to move back into second place in auto sales. I'd like to see that happen since it would be nice to see an American auto maker put out a great product and service the customer. Clearly that is what Ford is trying to do. Even the UAW realizes that in order to survive they have to work with the company in order to survive.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ford-seen-overtaking-toyota-in-us-2010-02-11

Yes I think the market as a whole is still somewhat too high and we need a final pullback so we can move higher. However clearly Ford has turned the page and they just crushed their numbers for the Qtr. How long will it be before they start paying a dividend on the preferred? My guess is before the year is out based on cash flow and debt reduction.

Eventually the markets always right themselves to make 1+1=2. When is always the question. My belief is in the next few weeks to a month. Long term F is certainly the Auto company you want to own. The preferred gives you nothing right now in terms of a dividend so I would own the common until we get closer to some type of payment.

I'll wait for the selling pressure to end and let this market make it's correction and then get long on some Ford.









































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