I was surprised about how many of you already contacted me and faxed me their Utility bills so I could have the comparison reports done for you.
As I mentioned I'm working with a large Natural gas company who supplies a better rate than the Utilities. Below is the link to the company that I'm working with.
http://www.greateasternenergy.com/
Here's are PSE&G, Con Ed and Keyspan encouraging you to shop your Gas rates: I'm working with all three through Great Eastern Energy.
http://www.pseg.com/customer/home/bill/understanding.jsp#anchor1
http://www.poweryourway.com/faqs.asp#q2
http://www2.nationalgridus.com/energy/choose_region.jsp?sect=/energy/purchase/suppliers
You all had some great questions so I decided to post some for everyone.
1. Can I switch back anytime if I'm not happy?
Yes as long as you don't have a 1 or 2 year contract. Even then you can switch out but you may have to pay the difference in price from what they bought the gas at to what the market is.
2. How do I know if I should take the market rate or a contract?
That's always personal but the way I see it is if I know what my savings is and I'm guranteed that rate through the contract I would rather have the guaranteed savings.
3. Does my bill change if I switch over through you with Great Eastern?
No. Nothing changes except the savings on your bill
4. What if I have a problem or smell gas?
Call your Utility company as you always have. Nothing changes except how much you pay for the Gas.
5. Do I need new equipment?
No. The existing equipment stays the same.
6. This sounds too good to be true how can I save more money than with the Utility company?
The Utilities had a monopoly on the distribution and commodity they sold in gas and energy just like the Telephone companies. It was deregulated and they allowed you to get a better rate using Suppliers. It's no different than you phone or cable service. The Utility companies cannot make money on your Gas only on delivery. They have no incentive to buy the Gas a a very cheap price since they can;t make anything off it anyway. They want you to change suppliers.
7. How do I look at the savings rate?
Just send me an email with your contact information. I will call or email you back. You fax or email me your bill and I'll have a comparison report run for you and send it to you. If you like the savings I'll send you a form to make the switch and then choose your plan. That's it.
8. I have a business can I participate in the savings also?
Any user of Natural Gas (Just look at your bill) can save money on their gas bill.
9. I own multiple homes can I sign up for more than one?
Yes you can ad as many properties as you like. I just need each individual bill to make the changes.
10. How much will I save?
Everyone's use is different but typical users save about 15% on their yearly bill.
Thanks again for all your questions and looking forward to helping more people to ave money on their Gas bills. Hey more money to buy stocks!
Marc Roth
February 19, 2010
February 18, 2010
Do you live in New York or New Jersey
I met with a Natural Gas supplier who saves homeowners and businesses money on their Natural Gas supply. Typically from what I saw the savings run from 10-25% depending on location and usage.It can be anywhere in the states of New York or New Jersey at present.
This is how it works. The Natural Gas and energy companies were deregulated allowing third party providers to offer SUPPLY on the gas. If you look at your Utility bill you will see two sections of you have Natural gas. One is for Electric and the other for Gas.
http://www.naturalgas-electric.com/deregulation.asp
There are two elements of both. Delivery and Supply. Your Utility company charges substantially higher rates on the SUPPLY (which is largest part of the bill) than third party suppliers. I did this years ago on the electrical side for several commercial buildings and a house. The savings we're significant. I'm now doing the same thing on the Natural Gas side which if you have looked at your Gas bill it's a big number.
The company I'm working with is very substantial and I know the owner personally. They are not new to the industry at all, serve over 4,500 clients small, medium and large. They serve municipalities and consult on how to save money on self generated energy. They have offices in Houston, Louisiana and New York. They work with the Utility company directly and are well established.
Here's how it works. I provided to them a copy of my Gas bills. They run a comparison report showing what I spent and what I would have spent. In the case of the house it was only $60 a month but hey better in my pocket than the Utility company.
They gave me the report and three choices for my plans:
1. Take the market rate which changes just like a stock (Natural Gas Commodity rate)
2. Lock in the rate for 1 year
3. Lock in the rate for 2 years
If you have done this on your Electric then you already know this is a very good way to save a lot of money on your Utility bills.
I look at it this way. If I'm filing up the care with Gas and one guy is $2.90 a gallon and the station across the street is $2.80 I'm going to take the gas at $2.80. Who wouldn't, it's gas.
I receive the same bill from Con Edison or PSE&G. They provide the delivery, fix any issues and are fully responsible for any problems. Nothing changes except the who I'm buying the supply from and the savings. I signed the form and sent it in. They take care of the rest. In 30-60 days the new lower rates are applied.
If you like me like to save money on Utilities then here's what you can do. Send me an email and I'll email you or call you. You can fax or email me the bill. I send it in for you, get the comparison report and the contract. You decide what plan you want, sign the form, send it back and that's it.
I thought it might be a good idea to let people know especially in these times how to save some money on their bill. I'll send you all the documentation on the supplier. If you have a commercial building, business, rent out apartments or your home your looking at a nice cut in your Bills.
Marc Roth
This is how it works. The Natural Gas and energy companies were deregulated allowing third party providers to offer SUPPLY on the gas. If you look at your Utility bill you will see two sections of you have Natural gas. One is for Electric and the other for Gas.
http://www.naturalgas-electric.com/deregulation.asp
There are two elements of both. Delivery and Supply. Your Utility company charges substantially higher rates on the SUPPLY (which is largest part of the bill) than third party suppliers. I did this years ago on the electrical side for several commercial buildings and a house. The savings we're significant. I'm now doing the same thing on the Natural Gas side which if you have looked at your Gas bill it's a big number.
The company I'm working with is very substantial and I know the owner personally. They are not new to the industry at all, serve over 4,500 clients small, medium and large. They serve municipalities and consult on how to save money on self generated energy. They have offices in Houston, Louisiana and New York. They work with the Utility company directly and are well established.
Here's how it works. I provided to them a copy of my Gas bills. They run a comparison report showing what I spent and what I would have spent. In the case of the house it was only $60 a month but hey better in my pocket than the Utility company.
They gave me the report and three choices for my plans:
1. Take the market rate which changes just like a stock (Natural Gas Commodity rate)
2. Lock in the rate for 1 year
3. Lock in the rate for 2 years
If you have done this on your Electric then you already know this is a very good way to save a lot of money on your Utility bills.
I look at it this way. If I'm filing up the care with Gas and one guy is $2.90 a gallon and the station across the street is $2.80 I'm going to take the gas at $2.80. Who wouldn't, it's gas.
I receive the same bill from Con Edison or PSE&G. They provide the delivery, fix any issues and are fully responsible for any problems. Nothing changes except the who I'm buying the supply from and the savings. I signed the form and sent it in. They take care of the rest. In 30-60 days the new lower rates are applied.
If you like me like to save money on Utilities then here's what you can do. Send me an email and I'll email you or call you. You can fax or email me the bill. I send it in for you, get the comparison report and the contract. You decide what plan you want, sign the form, send it back and that's it.
I thought it might be a good idea to let people know especially in these times how to save some money on their bill. I'll send you all the documentation on the supplier. If you have a commercial building, business, rent out apartments or your home your looking at a nice cut in your Bills.
Marc Roth
February 17, 2010
Toyota Motors (TM)-Another day, another problem or two
On a daily basis there is another problem for Toyota and possible recall issues. Toyota with a pending Senate investigation about to start next week is looking into some power steering complaints in the Corolla. They say that there are less than 100 complaints.
Typically companies of Toyota's size would never look into a small amount of complaints in such a large production vehicle but with the way they handled the accelerator issue they are taking no chances.
They are under pressure from Senate hearings looming and you can be sure it will plastered on every TV and newspaper across the world. Aiko Toyoda has said they he will attend the hearings if asked however the U.S. executives are scheduled to appear. Even with his limited command of English his absence from these hearings is a big mistake. It will be perceived as he is not being fourth coming with what he knew and when. As Harry Truman said "The buck stops here".
The law firm of Waite, Schneider, Bayless & Chesley Co., L.P.A. filed a class action lawsuit in Kentucky under RICO. This is an unusual step and usage of the racketeering statue. The basis is that Toyota knew about the issue for years and did nothing to inform the public or the dealers. Instead they kept selling the vehicles and ignored safety issues
Here is the law firm for all Toyota owners
Stanley Chesley who is the attorney handling the case believes that Toyota knew about the issue and is hiding information. Toyota has refused to give the government the event data recorder (EDR) which would show the causes of crashes. Think of it as the black box in airplanes for cars. If Toyota has nothing to hide surely they would give the investigators the EDR's. I can only guess that Mr. Chesley has some insider knowledge on the issue.
The other unusual factor about this RICO case is that Mr. Chesley is asking that Toyota be forced to make payments on the vehicles being recalled until they have been fixed and approved by the Government. The basis is that people cannot safely drive their cars and should not be responsible for their payments since Toyota knew about the issues ignored and tried to hide them for some time.
I don't currently own a Toyota but if I got a letter in the mail saying that if I sign up to be a part of the lawsuit and have the opportunity to have Toyota make my payments for me I certainly would do so.
If Mr. Chesley's assertions are correct this could wind up costing TM and it's shareholders a lot more than the estimated $2 billion dollars already quoted. This is something that could take years to turn around since the public would be outraged that Toyota knowingly sold them an unsafe vehicle and tried to hide it.
The repercussions of this lawsuit could be substantial even if Toyota is not found guilty. If he can actually show or it's perceived by the public that Toyota knew about the issue and sold those cars and caused even death you would see consumers walk away from the brand in droves. That would affect resale values and a well as sales. Perceptions become realities even when they are not the case at times. We already know there is a recall. The when and who knew is the bigger unanswered question.
I think the shareholder and the market as severely underestimating the cost associated with these issues. This is no longer just an accelerator or floor mat issue. The companies reputation is on the line.
We saw what this did to Audi who is a small manufacturer. They were actually found not guilty. Look what it did to them for years.
Ford (F) back in the 70's had the Pinto memo scandal. In that memo it showed that Ford knew about the issue of the gas tank exploding on impact and ignored it for an $11 part. Ford also was found not guilty but the damage was done.
I am long on TM puts and will continue buying more. I'm convinced that this will have two plays. One is on a very overvalued TM pps and the other to be long on F. As I said before this is only beginning. You are going to see substantial sales increases from all the competitors. Ford is the only domestic play so money will flow into the stock at some point. The when is hard to say but you want to own in my opinion.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
February 16, 2010
Transportation Department demanding the proof-Toyota Motors (TM)
Now the Transportation department is demanding that Toytota (TM) provide detailed documents as to when they knew about the problems with the floor mats and accelerators. They have 30-60 days to respond. The longer they waited the more the unknown. We also don't know if they knew about the issue before they produced the vehicles or gambled on no one figuring it out. Maybe they figured it wasn't that big of deal. Who know's at this point but this much I do know: Markets hate the unknown.
Consumer advocacy groups have already attacked the Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood on not dealing with the issue sooner. We know that the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee has called for hearings on March 2. Toyota has responded by flying in workers from the plants in an effort to lobby for the company.
The problems come down to who knew what and when. Then what did they do when they knew. The Government will do everything they can to take no blame on this issue and if they have documentation from Toyota showing they knew even while they are in production that spells big trouble for TM and gets LaHood off the hook if they can prove that. All the focus will shift on Toyota.
Reminds me of what happened to Brown and Williamson when Dr. Jeffrey Wigand went on 60 minutes and testified in Mississippi uncovered the lies the Tobacco companies put forward for so many years and blew the whistle. I'm not saying that Toyota has done the same thing since I have no idea however given the foot dragging that has gone on with this issue it would point that someone at Toyota knew about this issue some time ago.
Either way this as I've said before is just starting. The Dominoes have not yet fallen.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
Toyota Motors (TM)-More problems ahead
Toyota's (TM) spokesman Mike Goss confirmed today that they will suspend production for 3 additional days in addition to it's scheduled production breaks during the weeks of March 15 and April 12. The Kentucky and San Antonio plants will be affected. The Kentucky plant produces the Avalon, Camry and Venza while the Texas plant makes the Tundra truck.
Dealers have been dealing with the recall issue in relation to the gas pedal, breaks and floor mats. The workers will be kept on the payroll and paid during this additional unscheduled production lapse.
Obviously they have inventory building up since they stopped selling the vehicles and how many people are willing to buy a Toyota with the ongoing investigation still under way is to be seen. From past experiences the automakers typically
underestimate the fallout from such issues.
Federal regulators have now received 34 complainants of deaths attributable to unintended acceleration. That number is surely to move higher. As more people become aware of the issue's I have to believe that many will join the class action lawsuits that the attorneys have already started to advertise about.
Toyota estimated today that they have repaired 500,000 of the 2.3 million vehicles that it's recalling.
I would keep a close eye on this situation and any opportunity for Ford in this matter. We have already seen that Hyundai is experiencing an increase in sales as a result of the Toyota issues.
Toyota will have be to aggressive in it's public relations and marketing to attract people back to the brand. In some cases people may avoid the manufacturer completely. We are talking about people's safety and if you have a family why take a chance?
I have to figure that when March sales come out in a few weeks we will see the "Toyota affect" on Ford. I haven't seen any of the analysts February sales estimates increase based on the Toyota problems so this may be an opportunity to get a nice bump in Ford in the coming weeks.
If anyone has information or has seen anything in relation to an increase in sales estimates please comment about this or feel free to email me it and I will be sure to post it for everyone.
Marc Roth
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
Ronald Graves asked about Flowserve Corp. (FLS)
Flowserve Corp. (FLS) manufactures industrial seals, pumps and valves for flow service management of oil, gas, chemicals, and water. This is a well diversified company that sells it product worldwide.
The industry is growing and that's reflected in sales which is th4ee last two years grew over 18% on Revenue of $4.4+ Billion. They continue to shrink their long term debt now down to a little over 28% of Capitalization from over 48% ten years ago. Net income has been strong and they just adjusted the 2009 figures above consensus estimates. 2010 looks even better as they continue to curb costs. They pay a dividend of 1.14% and have $300 million buy back program in place that they are about half way through. I would rather have seen an increase in the dividend however it does show the strength of the cash flow of this company and it's ability to grow in what is a solid market.
What you have is a strong company in a growing business. They have already said that their EPS figures need to be adjusted upward that the consensus estimates. Long term this is a company to own.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
The industry is growing and that's reflected in sales which is th4ee last two years grew over 18% on Revenue of $4.4+ Billion. They continue to shrink their long term debt now down to a little over 28% of Capitalization from over 48% ten years ago. Net income has been strong and they just adjusted the 2009 figures above consensus estimates. 2010 looks even better as they continue to curb costs. They pay a dividend of 1.14% and have $300 million buy back program in place that they are about half way through. I would rather have seen an increase in the dividend however it does show the strength of the cash flow of this company and it's ability to grow in what is a solid market.
What you have is a strong company in a growing business. They have already said that their EPS figures need to be adjusted upward that the consensus estimates. Long term this is a company to own.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
February 12, 2010
Ford to take back 2nd place in the Auto market
A very smart man and successful once told me: "1+1 always equals 2. When it doesn't then something is wrong."
Today we see that 40 people have already filed a lawsuit against Toyota (TM). This will most likely be a class action lawsuit. Knowing how many Toyota's have been sold in the country just in the last year you can almost guarantee that there will be more people coming forward.
Then we have the insurance companies. You have to love this business as Warren Buffet has in becoming the wealthiest man in the country because of it. The why is simple.
Send me money every month, quarter or year and I'll pay for your accidents if something happens. If it does maybe I'll pay you and maybe I won't. If there's a way for me to keep you in court for the next how ever many years maybe I'll get lucky and you'll die. Then I just keep everything. Either that or make a settle far below what the contract says. Anyone who has had to deal with Health, Life, Auto, Homeowners, etc. insurance knows that getting paid on a claim is more difficult than trying to win a World Series except of course if your my New York Yankees.
We see Ford's (F) stock still under pressure in my opinion because of the selling pressure from the filing made by State Street on behalf of VEBA. 109+ million shares hitting the market will create that. On the other hand Toyota (TM) has been moving up because of what may seem like an oversold situation and a 15% drop which has now retraced itself up from $70 to $77.
Well 1+1 is not equaling 2. TM has the bad news and going up. Ford has nothing but good news and going down or trading flat.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tm http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f
Today we can see the future and Ford is poised to move back into second place in auto sales. I'd like to see that happen since it would be nice to see an American auto maker put out a great product and service the customer. Clearly that is what Ford is trying to do. Even the UAW realizes that in order to survive they have to work with the company in order to survive.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ford-seen-overtaking-toyota-in-us-2010-02-11
Yes I think the market as a whole is still somewhat too high and we need a final pullback so we can move higher. However clearly Ford has turned the page and they just crushed their numbers for the Qtr. How long will it be before they start paying a dividend on the preferred? My guess is before the year is out based on cash flow and debt reduction.
Eventually the markets always right themselves to make 1+1=2. When is always the question. My belief is in the next few weeks to a month. Long term F is certainly the Auto company you want to own. The preferred gives you nothing right now in terms of a dividend so I would own the common until we get closer to some type of payment.
I'll wait for the selling pressure to end and let this market make it's correction and then get long on some Ford.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
February 11, 2010
Idea for the close-Cheesecake factory (CAKE)
I for one am not buying this upturn on the news about Greece. The reality is we still have some issue's here and jobs are the biggest one. So it's nice to see a bump up across the board for the most part but as we have seen before every time we get a bump up it comes right off.
Today was the first 2 days rally since the first two days of the month of February.
Retail sales looked stronger than expected but people are still not spending money since they are still worried about their jobs. Even with the jobless report today we are still seeing people having problems finding employment.
Cheesecake factory (CAKE) reports after the bell. This casual restaurant has long been the darling of Wall Street however they suspended opening up newly planned restaurants because of the economic downtown. Long term this is a good play but their 4th Qtr. numbers to me will not be as good as anticipated and with the run up today an opportunity to make some money on the pullback.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cake
So I bought CAKE FEB 20 PUTS @ $.15 AND THE 22.5 PUTS @ $.74.
Also, AA made big move today so I added to the FEB 13 PUTS @ $.13
If you made some moves or have some idea's to share go right ahead and let everyone know.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
Lisa asked about what makes a stock go up or down
The reason I started to post was for people just like Lisa. Here's a woman that wants to participate in the market and make money investing over time. Her question is simple however most people don't really know why stocks go up or down. This is the type of inquiry that is really important to the Individual Investor. That's why I post to educate and entertain.
The Blog is for a community of people to exchange idea's and seek advice. I've met several of you and I have to say their are some great people out their who have become tired of the "experts" paraded on TV who make a recommendation and then when it's wrong ignore it. Those of you who have been following me n the past know that I say when I've made a mistake, book my loss and move on. To me that's the ultimate in credibility.
If you take a look at the top of the site it's called "Taking Control of your portfolio". "A Blog created for the Individual Investor to help navigate through the rough and difficult world of investing. Topics covered will be Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, Political ramifications and Market Sentiment. Past experience's have shown that not one factor alone can give you all the information that is needed to navigate through the decision making process of buy, sell or hold. Should you need help on a individual basis just send me a email." Marc Roth
Stocks move up and down based on a variety of a factors which is why I look at several. Fundamentals, Techinical Analysis (Charts), Politics (Worldwide news) and Sentiment. Sentiment is the toughest of them all. That's why CNBC has become so important since it gives you insight in to what people on the trading floor and you the investor are feeling about a stock or the market as a whole.
Stocks move up and down based first on the Fundamenatal (Financials) picture of that company and the view looking forward. Technicals provide guides to entry and exit prices. Politics affect the overall market, companies and industry, think Toyota. Sentiment shows direction, perceptions and intent. Perceptions many times become reality. That's why it's so important and takes the most time to learn.
If you're going to handle your portfolio alone with no advice then you need to study. Like anything else it's a matter of what you put into something. Again, you won't be right all the time. The idea is to gather as much information as possible to give yourself the best chance of being right. All that matters is profits. That is why you invest and how I get paid too.
If I'm running your portfolio all you want is for me to make you money whether it's trading or a long term portfolio. That's the way it should be. You have to hold yourself to the same account.
Lisa and whoever seeks knowledge take a look at these periodicals. If you decide you want to buy and read them then that's fine. Either way if you start to look at some of the subject matter, Google it and then read what it means then you will start to learn. Many of you are very smart just not educated in the ways of investing. Most just say I like this stock or product buy and it and forget about it. Not smart and a good way to lose money which is why so many become frustrated.
As always you can ask me questions. You won't understand all the material but if you get gain some knowledge it will help. I try to learn one new thing every day. I never know when it will come in handy.
Thanks for the great question Lisa! Spread the word about the site and keep the questions coming.
Marc Roth
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
The Blog is for a community of people to exchange idea's and seek advice. I've met several of you and I have to say their are some great people out their who have become tired of the "experts" paraded on TV who make a recommendation and then when it's wrong ignore it. Those of you who have been following me n the past know that I say when I've made a mistake, book my loss and move on. To me that's the ultimate in credibility.
If you take a look at the top of the site it's called "Taking Control of your portfolio". "A Blog created for the Individual Investor to help navigate through the rough and difficult world of investing. Topics covered will be Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, Political ramifications and Market Sentiment. Past experience's have shown that not one factor alone can give you all the information that is needed to navigate through the decision making process of buy, sell or hold. Should you need help on a individual basis just send me a email." Marc Roth
Stocks move up and down based on a variety of a factors which is why I look at several. Fundamentals, Techinical Analysis (Charts), Politics (Worldwide news) and Sentiment. Sentiment is the toughest of them all. That's why CNBC has become so important since it gives you insight in to what people on the trading floor and you the investor are feeling about a stock or the market as a whole.
Stocks move up and down based first on the Fundamenatal (Financials) picture of that company and the view looking forward. Technicals provide guides to entry and exit prices. Politics affect the overall market, companies and industry, think Toyota. Sentiment shows direction, perceptions and intent. Perceptions many times become reality. That's why it's so important and takes the most time to learn.
If you're going to handle your portfolio alone with no advice then you need to study. Like anything else it's a matter of what you put into something. Again, you won't be right all the time. The idea is to gather as much information as possible to give yourself the best chance of being right. All that matters is profits. That is why you invest and how I get paid too.
If I'm running your portfolio all you want is for me to make you money whether it's trading or a long term portfolio. That's the way it should be. You have to hold yourself to the same account.
Lisa and whoever seeks knowledge take a look at these periodicals. If you decide you want to buy and read them then that's fine. Either way if you start to look at some of the subject matter, Google it and then read what it means then you will start to learn. Many of you are very smart just not educated in the ways of investing. Most just say I like this stock or product buy and it and forget about it. Not smart and a good way to lose money which is why so many become frustrated.
As always you can ask me questions. You won't understand all the material but if you get gain some knowledge it will help. I try to learn one new thing every day. I never know when it will come in handy.
Thanks for the great question Lisa! Spread the word about the site and keep the questions coming.
Marc Roth
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
DBurton 97 asked about Ross Stores (ROST)
DBurton thanks for the submission. Sagezeke gave you a solid answer on NYL so please take a look at his comments.
As for ROST this discount retailer is a solid play. They are pulling in market shares from fully priced retailers and in particular in the states of Florida, California and Texas. The sales continue to grow, keep expenses under control and have a strong management team. What else could you ask for in an investment in a business? More growth and that's about it. Today they reported an 8% increase in Jan. sales. Who could ask for anything more.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ross-stores-same-store-sales-up-8-in-january-2010-02-04?tool=1&dist=bigcharts&symb=ROST&sid=4160
Since we are looking at such strong numbers that also pays a nice 1.39% dividend let's look a closer look at the price action.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rost
As we can see the stock is currently down trending however with a BETA with .72 there is not a lot of risk on the volatility of the stock.
BETA measures a stocks relationship of volatility in relation to the market. Most use the S&P 500 as the benchmark. If it's above 1 then it's more volatile and risky than the S&P 500. Below 1 then it's less.
So ROST is less risky then the S&P 500 but how does it do against it and Walmart (WMT) in terms of price movement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ROST#chart2:symbol=rost;range=6m;compare=wmt+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
As you can see from the 6 month chart it underperformed both. Now we know that the S&P has more risk because of the BETA so risk and return is inherit with one another. More risk, better chance of return. However if we look at Walmart (WMT) who is the largest discount retailer this shows a lot.
WMT pays a 2% dividend and has a BETA of .2. You are taking over 3 times the amount of risk versus the S&P on ROST for less performance and less in payment of a dividend.
This shows why Fundamentals and understanding how to not only value companies but compare them to their peers and the market is so important. Below are some periodicals on Fundamental investing. I encourage everyone to check them out.
Does this mean that ROST is not a good investment? No because as part of a diversified portfolio it fits right in.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
As for ROST this discount retailer is a solid play. They are pulling in market shares from fully priced retailers and in particular in the states of Florida, California and Texas. The sales continue to grow, keep expenses under control and have a strong management team. What else could you ask for in an investment in a business? More growth and that's about it. Today they reported an 8% increase in Jan. sales. Who could ask for anything more.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ross-stores-same-store-sales-up-8-in-january-2010-02-04?tool=1&dist=bigcharts&symb=ROST&sid=4160
Since we are looking at such strong numbers that also pays a nice 1.39% dividend let's look a closer look at the price action.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rost
As we can see the stock is currently down trending however with a BETA with .72 there is not a lot of risk on the volatility of the stock.
BETA measures a stocks relationship of volatility in relation to the market. Most use the S&P 500 as the benchmark. If it's above 1 then it's more volatile and risky than the S&P 500. Below 1 then it's less.
So ROST is less risky then the S&P 500 but how does it do against it and Walmart (WMT) in terms of price movement.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ROST#chart2:symbol=rost;range=6m;compare=wmt+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
As you can see from the 6 month chart it underperformed both. Now we know that the S&P has more risk because of the BETA so risk and return is inherit with one another. More risk, better chance of return. However if we look at Walmart (WMT) who is the largest discount retailer this shows a lot.
WMT pays a 2% dividend and has a BETA of .2. You are taking over 3 times the amount of risk versus the S&P on ROST for less performance and less in payment of a dividend.
This shows why Fundamentals and understanding how to not only value companies but compare them to their peers and the market is so important. Below are some periodicals on Fundamental investing. I encourage everyone to check them out.
Does this mean that ROST is not a good investment? No because as part of a diversified portfolio it fits right in.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
February 10, 2010
Ford (F)-Updated
Many of you have been emailing me privately asking about why Ford has been going down while Toyota is going up. Truly I can't understand why Toyota would go up other than Technicial's or a oversold situation. I think it has much more to fall from here and will break $70 soon.
Ford has been trending down since it ran back over $11 and people have asked why. Well first I showed everyone the trading range on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f
As I explained we saw a double bottom in the $10.80 area however the short term trend is down because of lower high's and lower lows.
Today Sagezeke sent me a 13G filing. For those of you unfamiliar with this SEC form it shows ownership and must be filed when selling stock when you are a material owner. Thank you Sagezeke!
Below is the amount of shares VEBA recieved from Ford. 362,391,305 is the total amount on 12/31/09.
http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHtmlSection1?SectionID=6981851-1265-15411&SessionID=lB_wHv7XX3GjJl7
Unfortunetly I can't link the PDF for you that Willard sent but here is part of page 2.
Here is the filing though http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/f/secfilings
CUSIP NO. 345370860 13G PAGE 2 OF 8 PAGES
1. NAME OF REPORTING PERSON: STATE STREET CORPORATION
I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NO. OF ABOVE PERSON: 04-2456637
2. CHECK THE APPROPRIATE BOX IF A MEMBER OF A GROUP
NOT APPLICABLE A __
B __
3. SEC USE ONLY
4. CITIZENSHIP OR PLACE OF ORGANIZATION
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS
5. SOLE VOTING POWER
0 SHARES
6. SHARED VOTING POWER
386,301,461 SHARES
7. SOLE DISPOSITIVE POWER
0 SHARES
8. SHARED DISPOSITIVE POWER
109,475,737 SHARES
9. AGGREGATED AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON
As you can see 109,475,737 were filed to be disposed of. The amount of total shares owned is almost the exact amount received. The filing shows it not as VEBA but as State Street Corp. who is the administrator for VEBA.
What you have is 109 million+ shares hitting the market or being crossed with another institution that wishes to own Ford. Some of those shares will hit the open market and many will be disposed of though a "Stock cross". That is when you have a larger seller and they negotiate typically at a discount to the current PPS by the Specialist of that stock in what's called "away from the market". Meaning it is not on the open market. The negotiate the price privately. Happens every day.
This would answer the question as to why Ford has seen so much pressure. Today at 15:52 there was a large amount of stock on the sell side of Ford. A large volume sell spike will not tell me if this is a cross. I would have to look and see that in time and sales.
Based on today's volume though they are not done selling. Once they are it will relieve a lot of pressure.
This also shows the power of and point of this blog which is based on community and people talking to one another. I've invited several of you to email in your idea's or writings to be published to help everyone. We all have something to contribute. Yes two minds are better than one.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get Slaughtered. Be a Pig!
And check out the Ford hats. Pretty nice huh.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
Ford has been trending down since it ran back over $11 and people have asked why. Well first I showed everyone the trading range on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f
As I explained we saw a double bottom in the $10.80 area however the short term trend is down because of lower high's and lower lows.
Today Sagezeke sent me a 13G filing. For those of you unfamiliar with this SEC form it shows ownership and must be filed when selling stock when you are a material owner. Thank you Sagezeke!
Below is the amount of shares VEBA recieved from Ford. 362,391,305 is the total amount on 12/31/09.
http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHtmlSection1?SectionID=6981851-1265-15411&SessionID=lB_wHv7XX3GjJl7
Unfortunetly I can't link the PDF for you that Willard sent but here is part of page 2.
Here is the filing though http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/f/secfilings
CUSIP NO. 345370860 13G PAGE 2 OF 8 PAGES
1. NAME OF REPORTING PERSON: STATE STREET CORPORATION
I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NO. OF ABOVE PERSON: 04-2456637
2. CHECK THE APPROPRIATE BOX IF A MEMBER OF A GROUP
NOT APPLICABLE A __
B __
3. SEC USE ONLY
4. CITIZENSHIP OR PLACE OF ORGANIZATION
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS
5. SOLE VOTING POWER
0 SHARES
6. SHARED VOTING POWER
386,301,461 SHARES
7. SOLE DISPOSITIVE POWER
0 SHARES
8. SHARED DISPOSITIVE POWER
109,475,737 SHARES
9. AGGREGATED AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON
As you can see 109,475,737 were filed to be disposed of. The amount of total shares owned is almost the exact amount received. The filing shows it not as VEBA but as State Street Corp. who is the administrator for VEBA.
What you have is 109 million+ shares hitting the market or being crossed with another institution that wishes to own Ford. Some of those shares will hit the open market and many will be disposed of though a "Stock cross". That is when you have a larger seller and they negotiate typically at a discount to the current PPS by the Specialist of that stock in what's called "away from the market". Meaning it is not on the open market. The negotiate the price privately. Happens every day.
This would answer the question as to why Ford has seen so much pressure. Today at 15:52 there was a large amount of stock on the sell side of Ford. A large volume sell spike will not tell me if this is a cross. I would have to look and see that in time and sales.
Based on today's volume though they are not done selling. Once they are it will relieve a lot of pressure.
This also shows the power of and point of this blog which is based on community and people talking to one another. I've invited several of you to email in your idea's or writings to be published to help everyone. We all have something to contribute. Yes two minds are better than one.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get Slaughtered. Be a Pig!
And check out the Ford hats. Pretty nice huh.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
Today's moves
Bought a couple of stocks that report after the bell.
ACTIVISION (ATVI) FEB 10 PUTS @ $.29 & .31
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC (BSX) FEB 8 PUTS @ $.20
Then I bought some
JPM MARCH 38 PUTS @ $1.45
And sold off:
GE MARCH 15 CALLS-Small loss
Fifth Third Bank (FITB) FEB 12.5 CALLS-Small loss
Airgas (ARG) MARCH 60 PUTS-Small loss
Sprint (S) Feb 3.5 @ .26 and .33-Sold half the position and covered half of the short
The Sprint as you know I vbought yesterday going into the close for .12 & .13. Made up for the small losses and then some.
Remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig!
So what did you did today? Post your trades or investments and ask questions.
Marc Roth
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
ACTIVISION (ATVI) FEB 10 PUTS @ $.29 & .31
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC (BSX) FEB 8 PUTS @ $.20
Then I bought some
JPM MARCH 38 PUTS @ $1.45
And sold off:
GE MARCH 15 CALLS-Small loss
Fifth Third Bank (FITB) FEB 12.5 CALLS-Small loss
Airgas (ARG) MARCH 60 PUTS-Small loss
Sprint (S) Feb 3.5 @ .26 and .33-Sold half the position and covered half of the short
The Sprint as you know I vbought yesterday going into the close for .12 & .13. Made up for the small losses and then some.
Remember: Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig!
So what did you did today? Post your trades or investments and ask questions.
Marc Roth
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
Sprint Nextel (S)-Update
Sprint reported today it's 4th Qtr. numbers today.
I highlighted this company yesterday and bought the Feb. 3.5 puts at .13 & .14 on it. I sold half so far at .26. Not bad.
The loss narrowed from $1.06 billion or .57 last year to $980 million or .34 a share. Revenue dropped again another 7% to $7.87 billion but cash flow rose to $666 million from $536 million. The consensus estimates were $8 billion in sales and a loss of $.18 per shares Most importantly they continue to lose customers. Of course they said that they will improve on subscriber losses. Hey guys you missed and missed big again. How about giving the shareholders a break already. What's the plan to through enough cash into ad's and direct mailings to get people to buy your service?
Jonathan Chaplin over at Credit Suisse rates it a buy still and a turn around is what he's looking for. Excuse me John can you tell us how you turn around a company while losing customers and the best plan they have is: "Total and postpaid sub losses will improve in 2010".Management said the exact same thing last year. OK, I believe you.
My question is how. By improving on not losing margins on past-paid customers? So the EBITA margins are not as bad as they were and they aren't overspending to gain customers. Excuse me but John but don't you need to stop losing customers to the competition? I may not be a Chartered Financial Analyst or went to a top MBA program but even a Pizza shop owner knows they need customers and more of them to make money. They are lifeblood for any business.
Interesting enough Mr. Chaplin has a neutral rating on Verizon (VZ) and AT & T (T). So I want to do nothing with the strongest players and get long on the weakest who hasn't done anything but not kill it's margins in the last year. John if you reading this or anyone over at Credit Suisse I think you should be thinking about how business works before recommending buying it.
It starts in sales guys. If you don't have net new customers then you are losing market share every day. You can't grow any company that way. Mr. Caplin seems to not understand that basic idea. Where he sees this is a being a turnaround while the companies taking the market share as neutral I would love to know. It simply does not make sense. You're certainly welcome to respond and we can debate it for everyone. Interesting enough I'm a couple of blocks away from his office overlooking Madison Square Park. Nice building.
Show me how you walk. They did and it's in a wheelchair.
Here some books about Fundamental Investing. It will help you and Jonathan take learn how to read a Financial statement. This is the backbone of any business. It tells the story with no opinion. Very important.
JBHall1245 asked about The Pantry Inc (PTRY)
Pantry operates Gas Stations and convenience stores in the Southeast. The are the third largest independently owned in this arena. The mostly operate under the Kangaroo Express retail name. They only have 22.5 M shares of stock on the float of which 95% is institutionally owned and it trades only 378,000+ shares on average per day.
That said the missed their 4th Qtr. numbers with a (.27) loss vs. an consensus estimate of (.22). They did beat on the revenue side however they are being squeezed on the margins in gas and groceries. The company does do over $6 Billion in business so it's not small by any means just not a big growth industry and tight margins.
Techincally it's been trending down for some time now as we can see.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ptry
This stock tends to stay below the 50 day MA as indicated and has steadily moved down. Being not one to try to catch a falling knife I would sit to the sidelines on this until it starts to shows some signs of life. I see know compelling reason to own it at this point however it does possess a fairly strong balance sheet and the company is trying to grow through acquisitions. I would watch to see if it can hold $12.50 before make a long buy.
Marc Roth
That said the missed their 4th Qtr. numbers with a (.27) loss vs. an consensus estimate of (.22). They did beat on the revenue side however they are being squeezed on the margins in gas and groceries. The company does do over $6 Billion in business so it's not small by any means just not a big growth industry and tight margins.
Techincally it's been trending down for some time now as we can see.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ptry
This stock tends to stay below the 50 day MA as indicated and has steadily moved down. Being not one to try to catch a falling knife I would sit to the sidelines on this until it starts to shows some signs of life. I see know compelling reason to own it at this point however it does possess a fairly strong balance sheet and the company is trying to grow through acquisitions. I would watch to see if it can hold $12.50 before make a long buy.
Marc Roth
Chris asked about OSI Systems (OSIS)
OSI is a "Terror play" They make body scanners and already are being placed in Heathrow and Manchester Airports in the UK. Obviously this is a growth industry. They also got a small contract for the winter Olympics and seem to be doing a solid job of signing new contracts on a regular basis. That I like. Everything comes from the sale so from a long term point of view this is a solid play in a growing market.
Chris asked- "What's going happen in this afternoon's meeting?" Chris I have no idea and I wish I was a fly on the way as they say.
It would make sense though that this company with a strong balance sheet, contracts being signed on a continual basis, one of the best in the market and contacts with Governments this should be a long term winner.
On a Techinical basis it likes to stay close to the 5 day moving average and in general I still am looking for this market to sell off like most. The RSI is sitting at a little over 50 and starting to point down as well as the MACD chances are you are looking at a pullback to around $25-$26. I would see a sell off as a buying opportunity though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=osis
Learn more about Techincal trading and check out the books. They should help. Take a look at the subject matter and then Google it. Lots of free articles out their.
Marc Roth
Chris asked- "What's going happen in this afternoon's meeting?" Chris I have no idea and I wish I was a fly on the way as they say.
It would make sense though that this company with a strong balance sheet, contracts being signed on a continual basis, one of the best in the market and contacts with Governments this should be a long term winner.
On a Techinical basis it likes to stay close to the 5 day moving average and in general I still am looking for this market to sell off like most. The RSI is sitting at a little over 50 and starting to point down as well as the MACD chances are you are looking at a pullback to around $25-$26. I would see a sell off as a buying opportunity though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=osis
Learn more about Techincal trading and check out the books. They should help. Take a look at the subject matter and then Google it. Lots of free articles out their.
Marc Roth
February 9, 2010
Guy Adami-Short BIDU
Let's see if Melissa asks him about that one from yesterday. Interesting that everytime they make bad calls they rarely ever talk about it. When they make horrible calls they forget to follow up or make like it's no big deal.
$32 point swing is a BIG DEAL if I was short BIDU.
So Melissa talks about BIDU with Tim and the guy from Cantor. Guy is doodling on his pad. Not one question to the him about his call yesterday to SHORT BIDU. How can you take this guy seriously. Hey Guy say something about being wrong on your call and why. Karen finally got lucky on CVS but how's that JPM Jan. call she loaded up on or BAC? I'm trying to figure out where these two make money.
And thoughts?
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig!
Sprint Nextel (S)-I can't see why to own this
One of my readers had asked about Sprint Nextel (S). Being that they are releasing their numbers tomorrow morning I look it moght be a good earnings play for at least a trade.
Sprint provides wireless and wireline products for consumers, governments and businesses.They serve the 50 states including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin islands.
I remember when Craig McCaw brought Nextel to the market and back in 1999 and 2000 we were building a position in it as a takeover play. He had a history of building great companies based on a great product and being first to market with it.
It took some time but eventually it happened and we reaped the benefits. Craig knows how to build companies, sell them off and move on to the next. A true entrepreneur if there ever was one. I'm not sure what he would say about the current state of Nextel but in looking at the company and how it's been managed he might not even be able to turn it around at this point. Why? Let's take a look.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=s
Since 2000 the stock has gone from over $70 to the current $3.60. Sales growth has been down the last 2 years (2.1) and (11.2). EPS growth the last 3, 5 and 10 years is down a whopping (1,1092.9), (568.8) and (336.1). Gross margins had stayed steady at a little over 50% since 04'. Operating margins though have continued to go down though. Sales were off in 07's and then or course in 08'. So they couldn't grow the company in the best of times.They pay no dividend but the book value is $6.86 so it's trading under book if I'm a value guy and looking at it as an investment for the long haul. The cash flow is not particularly good at $1.96 pps.
The competitors are AT &T (T), Verizon (VZ) Vodaphone (VOD) T Mobile/Deutsche Telecom AG (DTE) and several others. These are the major players though. A tough and crowded arena with companies that have strong balance sheets, strong marketing and in the case of Verizon very well run. Hey they even pay a dividend. However if you look at VZ numbers who came out recently that stock went down on the numbers even thought they were pretty good. AT& T (T) had good numbers too and had did what did that stock do? Not much.
Sprint (S) has 2.82 Billion shares outstanding of which 1,100+ Institutions own 90+% of the outstanding float. In the last 3 months there have been a net purchases by these institutions were 24.3 mil shares. Short interest is sitting as of 1/15/10 at 3.38% of the float or 97,145+ mil shares an increase from December of about 7 mil shares.
Maybe these 1,100 institutions are looking for a takeover? That I couldn't say. This much I can say that if your losing market share, lose money and have dwindling sales even in the best of times chances are better than worse your numbers are not going to be good tough times. I'm trying to figure out why shareholders would allow this company to be run into the ground and not make huge changes at the management level across the board. Surely if McCaw was running it it would never have gone down this path since he puts his heart and soul into everything he does. It's his baby. This company has been run like someone's piggy bank or they just didn't care.
I met this very successful businessman when I was a kid and he had this expression that I never forgot. He would say "Show me how you walk". Well Sprint if you want me to be a shareholder than increase sales to start. Till then if 'm going to own anything in this tough arena I'll take VZ first since they pay a good dividend, a great network, improving customer service and the management cares.
The boys over at Credit Suisse are looking for signs of a turnaround and have a $6 target price. Hey guys they haven't been able to turn around anything in 10 years! How about showing the shareholder and the public a up Qtr. before you actually call for a turnaround. Show me how you walk.
Case in point-Ford Motors (F) clearly walked the walk. Maybe Sprint can get Mulally to give them some tips on how to turn around a company. Hell I'd give a shot I certainly couldn't do any worse.
I bought (S) Feb 3.5 puts @ $.14 so far I'll probably add to add it before the close and try to nake a few dollars on (S) missing numbers.
Someone, anyone show me why I would want to own Sprint and not just because it's $3.60 and it's a big company.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs slaughtered. Be a Pig!
Sprint provides wireless and wireline products for consumers, governments and businesses.They serve the 50 states including Puerto Rico and the US Virgin islands.
I remember when Craig McCaw brought Nextel to the market and back in 1999 and 2000 we were building a position in it as a takeover play. He had a history of building great companies based on a great product and being first to market with it.
It took some time but eventually it happened and we reaped the benefits. Craig knows how to build companies, sell them off and move on to the next. A true entrepreneur if there ever was one. I'm not sure what he would say about the current state of Nextel but in looking at the company and how it's been managed he might not even be able to turn it around at this point. Why? Let's take a look.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=s
Since 2000 the stock has gone from over $70 to the current $3.60. Sales growth has been down the last 2 years (2.1) and (11.2). EPS growth the last 3, 5 and 10 years is down a whopping (1,1092.9), (568.8) and (336.1). Gross margins had stayed steady at a little over 50% since 04'. Operating margins though have continued to go down though. Sales were off in 07's and then or course in 08'. So they couldn't grow the company in the best of times.They pay no dividend but the book value is $6.86 so it's trading under book if I'm a value guy and looking at it as an investment for the long haul. The cash flow is not particularly good at $1.96 pps.
The competitors are AT &T (T), Verizon (VZ) Vodaphone (VOD) T Mobile/Deutsche Telecom AG (DTE) and several others. These are the major players though. A tough and crowded arena with companies that have strong balance sheets, strong marketing and in the case of Verizon very well run. Hey they even pay a dividend. However if you look at VZ numbers who came out recently that stock went down on the numbers even thought they were pretty good. AT& T (T) had good numbers too and had did what did that stock do? Not much.
Sprint (S) has 2.82 Billion shares outstanding of which 1,100+ Institutions own 90+% of the outstanding float. In the last 3 months there have been a net purchases by these institutions were 24.3 mil shares. Short interest is sitting as of 1/15/10 at 3.38% of the float or 97,145+ mil shares an increase from December of about 7 mil shares.
Maybe these 1,100 institutions are looking for a takeover? That I couldn't say. This much I can say that if your losing market share, lose money and have dwindling sales even in the best of times chances are better than worse your numbers are not going to be good tough times. I'm trying to figure out why shareholders would allow this company to be run into the ground and not make huge changes at the management level across the board. Surely if McCaw was running it it would never have gone down this path since he puts his heart and soul into everything he does. It's his baby. This company has been run like someone's piggy bank or they just didn't care.
I met this very successful businessman when I was a kid and he had this expression that I never forgot. He would say "Show me how you walk". Well Sprint if you want me to be a shareholder than increase sales to start. Till then if 'm going to own anything in this tough arena I'll take VZ first since they pay a good dividend, a great network, improving customer service and the management cares.
The boys over at Credit Suisse are looking for signs of a turnaround and have a $6 target price. Hey guys they haven't been able to turn around anything in 10 years! How about showing the shareholder and the public a up Qtr. before you actually call for a turnaround. Show me how you walk.
Case in point-Ford Motors (F) clearly walked the walk. Maybe Sprint can get Mulally to give them some tips on how to turn around a company. Hell I'd give a shot I certainly couldn't do any worse.
I bought (S) Feb 3.5 puts @ $.14 so far I'll probably add to add it before the close and try to nake a few dollars on (S) missing numbers.
Someone, anyone show me why I would want to own Sprint and not just because it's $3.60 and it's a big company.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs slaughtered. Be a Pig!
Midday moves-What I'm doing
In sharing with you what I'm doing on the trading front be aware that it has nothing to do with Long term investing. I'm simply looking to make some money in the short term. Sometimes it's the next day and other times a bit further out. As I've explained many times on Yahoo you should not be trading with me or seeing these moves as something to learn from to use for yourself. I don't know your personal Financial situation unless I'm running it for you. I can't make any calls as to what you should do, just what I would do given the position.
Here's a couple of more good books on trading so can learn how to read a chart. If you don't use charts in some form for entries and exits on trades it's like driving blind. You wouldn't drive your car blind would you? Then why trade without a chart or knowing what to look for and how to read them? You wouldn't. Too many people do this because of the internet. It's dangerous and it's a matter of time before you hurt yourself. I'm trying to teach you how to make money not lose it.
Long term investing is very different in that you are using Fundamentals to look for a value or what's know as Value Investing. Entries are important but based on Financial statements and peer group values. You look for PPS (Price per share) that is out of line with the actual value of the current share price.
I don't like all these big down and up days. An emotional roller coaster. That is what the market is right now and it's being run by traders. So I move with them and look to sell into strength and get short or buy puts on up days and get long on down days. Unemployment is still a major issue and it's not going away. Everyone is still looking for a correction so they are booking their profits on the long side (stock going up) quickly and getting short again. These big up and down swings all smell of a big drop eventually. It should come sooner than later I just don't know when so I still nimble.
This mornings moves:
BUY ALCOA (AA) MARCH 13 PUTS @ $ .65-NEW POSTION
SELL FORD (F) MARCH 10 CALLS @ $ 1.40-BOOKED A SMALL LOSS
SELL FORD (F) MARCH 11 CALLS @ $ .77-BOOKED A SMALL GAIN
BUY FORD (F) MARCH 11 PUTS @ $ .59-NEW POSITION
BUY FORD (F) MARCH 12 PUTS @ $ 1.17-NEW POSITON
BUY TOYOTA (TM) MARCH 65 PUTS @ $ .95 & .80-ADDED TO POSITION
SOLD ELECTRONIC ARTS (ERTS) FEB 17 PUTS @ $1.05 & 1.07-Big gain from yesterday's buy @ $ .33
BUY ENERGY CONVERSION (ENER) MARCH 7 PUTS @ $.30
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Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig!
Six month Ford chart
Stock trading education and information is intended to inform stock investors about stock trading techniques, but not specific investment decisions. Important Disclaimer: Stocks are risky and every dollar you invest is is at risk of total loss. Their are no guarantees in the stock trading and this site is not intended to give advice on particular investment decisions or buying and selling of stocks. ____________________________________________________________________________________________
How to add your photo to your ID and particpation-Would you like to Blog?
Good Morning everyone. Several of you have emailed me about adding a photo and letting people know about the site.
Many of you requested that I set up a forum free of arguing and political rantings. I'm no expert at this but I learning a little more everyday and looking for ways to improve it. Your suggestions and comments are imperative to the long term viability of my ability to provide content for you.
If you would like Blog then just send me an email with what you want posted or leave a comment. If you write good content then I will invite you to part of the Blog team. Remember this site was set up for you so participate and help spread the word. The more people that come the more successful it is.
To add a photo-Sign into your account and click on settings next to your name. Then click on the link to add your photo. Upload your photo and change all the settings (ex:email notifications of comments) you wish. Hit done and that's it.
I love this movie! If you every seen it it's hilarious. If not you definitely should
Many of you requested that I set up a forum free of arguing and political rantings. I'm no expert at this but I learning a little more everyday and looking for ways to improve it. Your suggestions and comments are imperative to the long term viability of my ability to provide content for you.
If you would like Blog then just send me an email with what you want posted or leave a comment. If you write good content then I will invite you to part of the Blog team. Remember this site was set up for you so participate and help spread the word. The more people that come the more successful it is.
To add a photo-Sign into your account and click on settings next to your name. Then click on the link to add your photo. Upload your photo and change all the settings (ex:email notifications of comments) you wish. Hit done and that's it.
I love this movie! If you every seen it it's hilarious. If not you definitely should
Willard asked about GE
Willard.
What is your opinion on GE for the immediate future (1 mon) and beginning of summer?
Hi Willard and thanks for the question. I'm also currently long on GE with options. It's gotten a trading range here which is pretty tight as many have. I'm looking to sell it again around $16.15 or so. I would take part of it off the table at around $16 and more higher.
I like to dollar cost average on the buy and sell side.
I would look for a $18 GE somewhere around May/June. It trades with the Financials and they have not performing even though GE reported great numbers, has been selling a lot of it's products and the sell-off of Universal. Fundamentally very strong and Techinically a tight trading range like most of the market. INTC has had the same issue as have many.
Thanks again for the questions, keep them coming and spread the word about the site. We need lots of participation so your help is greatly appreciated. Only the beginning.
Marc Roth
What is your opinion on GE for the immediate future (1 mon) and beginning of summer?
Hi Willard and thanks for the question. I'm also currently long on GE with options. It's gotten a trading range here which is pretty tight as many have. I'm looking to sell it again around $16.15 or so. I would take part of it off the table at around $16 and more higher.
I like to dollar cost average on the buy and sell side.
I would look for a $18 GE somewhere around May/June. It trades with the Financials and they have not performing even though GE reported great numbers, has been selling a lot of it's products and the sell-off of Universal. Fundamentally very strong and Techinically a tight trading range like most of the market. INTC has had the same issue as have many.
Thanks again for the questions, keep them coming and spread the word about the site. We need lots of participation so your help is greatly appreciated. Only the beginning.
Marc Roth
February 8, 2010
Dadicus asked about Financial ETF's
Hi Dadicus and thanks for the great question. I would take a look at some of the periodicals I picked out on 2/6/10 from Amazon to learn a little about Techincal trading. The financials continue to be under pressure because of pending bank tax and sovereign bank issue . As i mentioned in my other post the sovereign bank issue I don't belive will be a major issue. You can play this a few ways as a hedge. One is to buy the VIX or call options on it. You should buy them several months ahead so the time value affects you less on the option side. The other way is to buy the SKF which is an Ultra short of the Financials. A third way is to buy put options on your existing ETF a few months out again. Keep the questions coming and spread the world by letting people know about the site. Marc Roth As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control. This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only. |
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)
Thanks for submission on EXEL LA TAUPE.
Exelixis is a Biotech company that still in development phase that's been around since 1994. They are trying create a pipeline of drug therapies for cancer and other life threatening diseases. It's headed by two former investment bankers who are also PHD's. The management has a list of impressive resumes and some very well placed people that know how to raise money and have wide reaching contacts from many walks of life.
The have several major programs in place with several of the big name companies like Bristol Meyers-Squibb (BMY). They receive funding from those companies and others for research in hopes of finding cures and prevent disease.
The stock itself has continued to slide down recently and has very little in the way of support by analysts. It's never made a profit, negative cash flow, is thinly traded (little volume) and 65% of the stock is owned by institutions. Out of the 118 institutions that own shares in EXEL FMR LLC (14.94%), T Rowe Price (11.12% and Fidelity Growth company fund (9.84%) represent a total of 35.9% as of 9/30/09 of the shares outstanding according to Yahoo finance.
On a Technical level it has some support at $5.98 which is it's 200 day moving average.
This is not a stock to trade in my opinion. The institutions and the people involved certainly are an impressive list of names and they are doing commendable work. With companies of this nature and business it's hit or miss. How long it takes for them to find an approved and marketable drug is impossible to say. They still have to get FDA approval on any drugs they do find in clinical trials that work.
If you believe in the long term viability of what they do and understand the product then maybe one day it will be a home run.
Marc Roth
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig!
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control. This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
Today's mid day moves
Congrats to all you Saints fans on the Super Bowl. First trip and a win. You all waiting a long time so it's nice to see.
Today is kind of quiet with all this worry about sovereign debt issues. Personally I find it all overdone since most of the Western European countries like the UK, Germany, France, etc have investments their and can't afford to have it collapse. In the end regardless of what they are saying now they will protect themselves.
Friday we had quite a comeback and I took it as a opportunity to take some longs with an oversell situation. Keep in mind that I still believe this to be a traders market. Not everyone should be doing that. You have to learn how to before doing so. From what I can tell it looked like shorts locked in their profits going into the weekend.
Here are a couple of good books to learn how. You're always welcome to ask me questions also which I have set up for everyone on the right side of the homepage about 1/2 of the way down. Go ahead and submit those questions.
I bought more Toyota Motors (TM) March 65 puts today for $1.20. Sold my MSFT Feb. 25 puts and my INTC Feb 19 puts for a loss and don't see it moving that low so better to cut my losses then watch time value just eat away at the principal. Sold a little of the Airproducts (APD) March 75 calls for .95 which I bought just last Thursday for a nice little gain. Bought Feb. 17 puts on Electronic Arts (ERTS) for $.33 since they have running up and report after the bell. They tend to disappoint on earnings and with the recent run up and chart looking overbought it's a decent spec. trade.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig!
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
A Power Energy Generation Systems-(APWR)
A-Power Energy Generation Systems Ltd. is a Northeast China based renewable energy company listed on the NASDAQ under ticker symbol APWR. They provide onsite energy systems ranging in size from 250MW-400MW for industrial companies and also wind turbines with GE's Drivetrain Technilogies. They design, construct (through subcontractors) , install and test the onsite systems before the customer puts them into use. This is all done using the existing heat and gas previously wasted in production by large energy users.
The are the largest in what is to be a growing industry. Capital intensive and long time investment horizon on a company in this nature is to be expected. Being that this industry surely is to benefit and the economic picture gaining strength from 2009-2010 over the long term this is an industry you want to be in.
Fundamental issue's are it's a Chinese based corporation, heavy capital expenditures, High Beta of 3.3 and the most recent quarters miss on EPS estimates. They also just completed a private placement for
5.78M shares @ $14.37 per share. They also issued warrants for the purchase of 2.89M shares with 2.1M exercisable @ $16.90 and the rest @ $16.91 per share. the dilution and the miss of the earnings surely put downward pressure on the stock.
From a Fundamental long term investment horizon this should be a solid play over time. They are slated to increase earning almost 45% for this fiscal year.
From a Technical basis and the short term the stock has broken all support. The chart trend shows a clear downward move. The RSI is low at 30 but continues to sink further. 50 and 200 day moving averages are falling which is Bearish. The support which was @ $11.91 broke that support level also Bearish.
The question is what to do if you own the stock or considering buying it. One way is to avoid it completely and buy a company like GE that is worldwide for the exposure. Personally I don't typically like owning individual companies in markets like China which do not have the same type of regulations that the U.S and major markets that have been in the business of regulating them for some time. China is still a Communist country with controls unlike most of the world. You should understand this market and how it's regulated if your going to invest in an individual stock within it. I don't so I don't buy them. An index like the CHII might be a better and safer way to go if you want to participate in that market and sector.
If you wish to learn about that market one of the best books out their on them is by Jim Rodgers who is an expert on China and now lives in Sigapore. He understands it better than most. He has an incredibly successful track record having started and run the Quatum fund with George Soros. He also has a Blog just Google his name.
The are the largest in what is to be a growing industry. Capital intensive and long time investment horizon on a company in this nature is to be expected. Being that this industry surely is to benefit and the economic picture gaining strength from 2009-2010 over the long term this is an industry you want to be in.
Fundamental issue's are it's a Chinese based corporation, heavy capital expenditures, High Beta of 3.3 and the most recent quarters miss on EPS estimates. They also just completed a private placement for
5.78M shares @ $14.37 per share. They also issued warrants for the purchase of 2.89M shares with 2.1M exercisable @ $16.90 and the rest @ $16.91 per share. the dilution and the miss of the earnings surely put downward pressure on the stock.
From a Fundamental long term investment horizon this should be a solid play over time. They are slated to increase earning almost 45% for this fiscal year.
From a Technical basis and the short term the stock has broken all support. The chart trend shows a clear downward move. The RSI is low at 30 but continues to sink further. 50 and 200 day moving averages are falling which is Bearish. The support which was @ $11.91 broke that support level also Bearish.
The question is what to do if you own the stock or considering buying it. One way is to avoid it completely and buy a company like GE that is worldwide for the exposure. Personally I don't typically like owning individual companies in markets like China which do not have the same type of regulations that the U.S and major markets that have been in the business of regulating them for some time. China is still a Communist country with controls unlike most of the world. You should understand this market and how it's regulated if your going to invest in an individual stock within it. I don't so I don't buy them. An index like the CHII might be a better and safer way to go if you want to participate in that market and sector.
If you wish to learn about that market one of the best books out their on them is by Jim Rodgers who is an expert on China and now lives in Sigapore. He understands it better than most. He has an incredibly successful track record having started and run the Quatum fund with George Soros. He also has a Blog just Google his name.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.
Submit your Stock idea
Everyone has a stock that are looking at or own and trying to get a read on.
What's your stock? Tell me and I'll get to work on it for you.
Have a great day!
Marc Roth
What's your stock? Tell me and I'll get to work on it for you.
Have a great day!
Marc Roth
February 7, 2010
Toyota (TM) & Ford (F)-Only the beginning
Today's front page article in New York Times brings me back to my Blog of Thursday about my anticipation of a real drop in Toyota and a major opportunity for Ford.
The Times piece is an depth piece on how Toyota has dragged it's feet and denied any issues with past safety issues. With this newest article in one of the most widely read papers in the world on a Sunday means you can look for further media attention to this issue.
Being that Ford is the only U.S. car manufacturer currently not in Bankruptcy, being supported by you the taxpayer and not trading as pink sheet stock it leaves a wide open door in my opinion for some buying. Being that it also has a heavy short position that creates a classic short squeeze.
A short is when an investor believes the stock price will go down and borrows shares to sell it "short". A long is just the opposite it's when he or she believes the price of the stock is going to go up and buys shares in that company.
A short squeeze is when the price is running up and the shorts buy back the stock they do not own or what's known as covering the short. That pressure from all the buying creates what's known a squeeze play. Generally a very powerful move. Currently as of 1/15/10 Ford has 193.40 Million shares short or a little over 8% of the total shares outstanding.
The NY Post yesterday ran two pieces on Toyota one about the depth of the bow that Aiko Toyoda presented at the press conference and another about how the Auto insurers were already looking at some of their claims from their cars.
The Japanese culture is all about saving face as previously explained. The depth of your bow represents your level of regret. Mr. Toyoda's bow was seen as insufficient by the Japanese press and the fact that he is the grandson of the founder of Toyota implies an air of elitism. It would not surprise me if he was forced to step down.
The Auto insurer's hate paying out claims and love collecting premiums. If they can find a way to find someone else to pay for anything they will. No question to me that any Auto insurer who had claims with Toyota's will start looking at every claim in an effort to get Toyota to pay for it.
Current estimates are that this will cost TM about $2 billion. What is the cost of additional loss of sales, insurance claims, Government fines/penalties and civil lawsuits? I don't know but that's one big Meatball.
If you read at the top of my Blog what I look for in taking control of your portfolio it's a combination of four basic elements. Fundamentals, Techinicals, Politics and Sentiment.
To me sentiment is the strongest factor since perceptions are everything. They become reality regardless of the facts. That is what I believe we have here which creates a domino affect.
Chances are I will buy additional puts on Toyota and get longer on Ford sometime this week. I'm still treading carefully on the long side of this market but I do believe with the buy in on Friday afternoon we will a move up on Monday or Tuesday. If you have been following this market carefully you will notice that the traders are selling into the strength getting short and covering quickly. They are watching the Technical levels carefully and they have traded pretty much right on the money. Meaning as they hit the buy and sell levels that the charts show they should be the stocks and the overall markets trade with them.
On a longer term perspective Ford is something I believe should be a part of a diversified portfolio. The day to day movement is not really much of a concern at this point and it's clear they have everything going in the right direction.
Here's a couple more idea's for periodicals. One on Fundamental's and the other on Candlestick charts. In order to run you have to walk first and put in the work. You won't understand everything but the way I approach study is that if you can grasp a few key aspects and put them in your arsenal of information it gives you a much better chance of booking profits.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig.
Mastering Candlestick Charts I
The Times piece is an depth piece on how Toyota has dragged it's feet and denied any issues with past safety issues. With this newest article in one of the most widely read papers in the world on a Sunday means you can look for further media attention to this issue.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/business/global/07toyota.html?ref=todayspaperBeing that Ford is the only U.S. car manufacturer currently not in Bankruptcy, being supported by you the taxpayer and not trading as pink sheet stock it leaves a wide open door in my opinion for some buying. Being that it also has a heavy short position that creates a classic short squeeze.
A short is when an investor believes the stock price will go down and borrows shares to sell it "short". A long is just the opposite it's when he or she believes the price of the stock is going to go up and buys shares in that company.
A short squeeze is when the price is running up and the shorts buy back the stock they do not own or what's known as covering the short. That pressure from all the buying creates what's known a squeeze play. Generally a very powerful move. Currently as of 1/15/10 Ford has 193.40 Million shares short or a little over 8% of the total shares outstanding.
The NY Post yesterday ran two pieces on Toyota one about the depth of the bow that Aiko Toyoda presented at the press conference and another about how the Auto insurers were already looking at some of their claims from their cars.
The Japanese culture is all about saving face as previously explained. The depth of your bow represents your level of regret. Mr. Toyoda's bow was seen as insufficient by the Japanese press and the fact that he is the grandson of the founder of Toyota implies an air of elitism. It would not surprise me if he was forced to step down.
The Auto insurer's hate paying out claims and love collecting premiums. If they can find a way to find someone else to pay for anything they will. No question to me that any Auto insurer who had claims with Toyota's will start looking at every claim in an effort to get Toyota to pay for it.
Current estimates are that this will cost TM about $2 billion. What is the cost of additional loss of sales, insurance claims, Government fines/penalties and civil lawsuits? I don't know but that's one big Meatball.
If you read at the top of my Blog what I look for in taking control of your portfolio it's a combination of four basic elements. Fundamentals, Techinicals, Politics and Sentiment.
To me sentiment is the strongest factor since perceptions are everything. They become reality regardless of the facts. That is what I believe we have here which creates a domino affect.
Chances are I will buy additional puts on Toyota and get longer on Ford sometime this week. I'm still treading carefully on the long side of this market but I do believe with the buy in on Friday afternoon we will a move up on Monday or Tuesday. If you have been following this market carefully you will notice that the traders are selling into the strength getting short and covering quickly. They are watching the Technical levels carefully and they have traded pretty much right on the money. Meaning as they hit the buy and sell levels that the charts show they should be the stocks and the overall markets trade with them.
On a longer term perspective Ford is something I believe should be a part of a diversified portfolio. The day to day movement is not really much of a concern at this point and it's clear they have everything going in the right direction.
Here's a couple more idea's for periodicals. One on Fundamental's and the other on Candlestick charts. In order to run you have to walk first and put in the work. You won't understand everything but the way I approach study is that if you can grasp a few key aspects and put them in your arsenal of information it gives you a much better chance of booking profits.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Be a Pig.
Mastering Candlestick Charts I
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