Ford has been trending down since it ran back over $11 and people have asked why. Well first I showed everyone the trading range on the chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f
As I explained we saw a double bottom in the $10.80 area however the short term trend is down because of lower high's and lower lows.
Today Sagezeke sent me a 13G filing. For those of you unfamiliar with this SEC form it shows ownership and must be filed when selling stock when you are a material owner. Thank you Sagezeke!
Below is the amount of shares VEBA recieved from Ford. 362,391,305 is the total amount on 12/31/09.
http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHtmlSection1?SectionID=6981851-1265-15411&SessionID=lB_wHv7XX3GjJl7
Unfortunetly I can't link the PDF for you that Willard sent but here is part of page 2.
Here is the filing though http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/f/secfilings
CUSIP NO. 345370860 13G PAGE 2 OF 8 PAGES
1. NAME OF REPORTING PERSON: STATE STREET CORPORATION
I.R.S. IDENTIFICATION NO. OF ABOVE PERSON: 04-2456637
2. CHECK THE APPROPRIATE BOX IF A MEMBER OF A GROUP
NOT APPLICABLE A __
B __
3. SEC USE ONLY
4. CITIZENSHIP OR PLACE OF ORGANIZATION
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS
5. SOLE VOTING POWER
0 SHARES
6. SHARED VOTING POWER
386,301,461 SHARES
7. SOLE DISPOSITIVE POWER
0 SHARES
8. SHARED DISPOSITIVE POWER
109,475,737 SHARES
9. AGGREGATED AMOUNT BENEFICIALLY OWNED BY EACH REPORTING PERSON
As you can see 109,475,737 were filed to be disposed of. The amount of total shares owned is almost the exact amount received. The filing shows it not as VEBA but as State Street Corp. who is the administrator for VEBA.
What you have is 109 million+ shares hitting the market or being crossed with another institution that wishes to own Ford. Some of those shares will hit the open market and many will be disposed of though a "Stock cross". That is when you have a larger seller and they negotiate typically at a discount to the current PPS by the Specialist of that stock in what's called "away from the market". Meaning it is not on the open market. The negotiate the price privately. Happens every day.
This would answer the question as to why Ford has seen so much pressure. Today at 15:52 there was a large amount of stock on the sell side of Ford. A large volume sell spike will not tell me if this is a cross. I would have to look and see that in time and sales.
Based on today's volume though they are not done selling. Once they are it will relieve a lot of pressure.
This also shows the power of and point of this blog which is based on community and people talking to one another. I've invited several of you to email in your idea's or writings to be published to help everyone. We all have something to contribute. Yes two minds are better than one.
Remember: Pigs get fat, Hogs get Slaughtered. Be a Pig!
And check out the Ford hats. Pretty nice huh.
As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
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3 comments:
Good Morning Stock Guy
My name is Lisa and I enjoy your comments I am not an experienced trader, just someone who opened an online trading account. I own 5000 shares of Ford and small positions in several others and would like to know who calls the prices on stocks? It would seem to me if someone sells there is a buyer and if someone buys there is a seller So what makes the price go up or down?????? It just make no sense to me. Thanks for listening and if You would post an answer on your blog it would probably inform some others I am glad You and UAW quit fighting and seem civil to one another Have a wonderful day BTW I enjoy Your blog and I know it takes a lot of your time, Thanks, Lisa
Lisa, thanks for that question and post. I also own approximately 1000 shares of Ford that I purchased in $1.30-1.60 range. Stock Guy is Ford's product pipeline strong enough to push to $15-20 range over the next year? Regarding Toyota, despite its current recall issues, there is no way they will lose there leading market position. I believe they will continue to be the biggest challenge to Ford gaining share in the US market. Chrysler and GM are done.
Hi dburton. I believe that the pipeline is only one factor to consider but very important. They have consolidated the product line and have a clear goal. The management, expenses, sentiment and market share make up the other parts. I see no reason that over the next year given the information we have right now that it can't see $15-$20. Short term there is selling pressure however the long term picture is very different.
Thanks,
Marc Roth
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