A Blog created for the Individual Investor to help navigate through the rough and difficult world of investing. Topics covered will be Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, Political ramifications and Market Sentiment. Past experience's have shown that not one factor alone can give you all the information that is needed to navigate through the decision making process of buy, sell or hold. Should you need help on a individual basis just send me a email.
Yesterday Ford reported it's Jan. Sales. They are increasing in their market share and had a nice increase from last years same period of 26%. That with less than last years selling days and the "Toyota effect" not yet taking hold. The interesting factor here is the the sales of Fusion which saw a 49% increase in sales and won car of the year from Motor Trend. Ford has backed it's future on this vehicle. Time will tell of whether or not it will be the savior of Ford. Ford still has the sale of Volvo waiting in the wings which would add much needed cash and consolidate the focus of the company further. The question always put fourth to me is of course should I sell? My question back is always are you trading Ford, investing long term or both? The problem most people make is first they only buy one position and second they have no exit strategy other than to sell it higher. Just guessing and having no plan based on at least something in the way of a Fundamental analysis and/or a chart is not a plan. My answer is yes and no depending on what your objective is about selling some stock here. As you can see from the chart I've linked for you Ford followed up last weeks sell off with a clear reversal. This can be seen by looking at the Red candlesticks in a row and then a wick at the bottom. The wick portion represents the confirmation that the stock is reversing it's downward move. Based on what it did the week prior and the run up to $12+ the stock should continue to run up a bit further. How far is hard to say however if you did buy some shares last week selling off some a little at a time starting today is good idea. I like to sell 1/3 of the total position at a time. Dollar cost average in and dollar cost average out. It's almost impossible to pick a top or a bottom so if you have a range of what your objective is and make an average sale and profit your doing pretty good over time and you still own the stock. You can always buy it back. Major factors to consider: 1. Is the Toyota affect which seems to be snowballing 2. The Jobs report on Friday. Chances are it will not be good. You can be sure the Technicians are looking at the 1,100 S&P as a place to sell. The Technicians on Ford are watching it getting close to running out of steam so watch the volume. Up on light volume tells you that's exactly what's happening.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f
26 comments:
moe3535
said...
Ford has not "backed it's future" on the Fusion. Ford is basing it's long term viability on providing a balanced and diversified mix of high quality, fair priced vehicles.
Stockguy911, congratulations on the launch of this blog. The design and set up of the blog is well conceived.
I have been surprised at the number of posts on the Ford msg board on Yahoo about how to stop a runaway car, regardless of the manufacturer. Having been in one, the human mind does not think in a logical manner about which procedure should be followed and in what order.
Nor have many people considered when any item is mass produced there will be some items that slip through the cracks. There is no such thing as a perfect product.
IMHO, Ford needs Toyota to stay in the game to keep pressure on them to continue the improvements in the products Ford makes. The net winner is the consumer.
Stock, Thank You for taking time and giving us the advice with the level head. I will watch for your posts and use it. This is a exciting and rewarding time to be a Ford investor.
Thanks everyone for visiting. Please feel free to email the Blog to anyone you think might find it useful and hopefully entertaining. Keep checking back since I will be posting often about whatever I find interesting.
I'm looking for people to interview on various subjects. What's your area of expertise? Tell me and I'll find an interesting angle.
If you wish to be interviewed please send me an email at stockguy911@yahoo.com
The top management team in Ford has good vision. Last year, they forsaw Ford would make money in 2009 and do better this year, otherwise, it wouldn't start employee 401k match and merit increase this year.
Thanks Marc for helping me out when I first started trading. I am happy to see you have your site up and running. There are those in this world who talk and those that do. You are the latter
This morning while looking at a one year chart on IBD, there is a clear double bottom pattern setting up. We are in the extreme right leg of it now. How high the price will move, I am not sure. If I use flag trading techniques, I should expect to see it move to $13 pps but the slope of the leg is so steep that I believe it will surpass $13.
The other item of note from IBD is that they show a RS (not RSI) of 97. In their terminology, any stock with a RS greater than 80 is worthy of examination. Same applies to its EPS rating which Ford is rated at 81.
As these ratings are normalized against roughly 8,000 stocks that IBD monitors you are able to see how Ford compares to the entire database of 8,000 stocks. For the record, there is no 100 rating. The top rating is a 99.
These ratings put Ford is good company.
OT: Marc, I agree with you on Cisco. As the Internet continues to develop they will be the powerhouse company, as if they weren't already. It is a solid company with great management as you have noted. I have a lot of money over the years with them.
Good Job Marc I would like to see a section where members post some of their findings on stocks that are beaten down with the potential of long term reversal. Being Im an investor not a trader Steve
Marc, Congratulations on starting your blog. I'll be following it closely and appreciate the valuable information that you have shared with me and many others during the past year. Mark from PA
Steve: I would rather see this JUST a Ford board. This is Mark's board, so it's up to him. This board is the result of the crap on the Yahoo board. JSt 60
What is your take on Sprint Nextel? This is one of those beaten down stocks that looks very interesting. Rumors have them interested in LEAP wireless to take out one of it's lower cost competitors. (S) looks to me to be one of the few "value" plays in the S&P 500. Also, what appears to be intriquing, is the 4G Wimax roll-out that is ahead of VZ and T in schedule along with "smartgrid" and M2M (machine-to-machine) communications that is expecting to see a vast increase in the near future. Risky? Perhaps so. What say you? It was stated that Blackrock recently increased its holdings by 51 million shares. Interesting.
Thanks for coming and everyone's comments and participation is appreciated. If you would like to write a piece and have it posted I invite all to email me at stockguy911@yahoo.com.
Feel free to post comments on the Blog associated with your subject matter.
If you wish to be interviewed so I can share your knowledge for the Blog just let me know so we can talk about your area of expertise.
The more people you email about the site the better for it's continued success. If you would like for me to profile a particular company, industry, trade, investment please go right ahead and send me an email.
I'm very excited to hear from all of you and remember to join as a follower. Thank you all for following and spreading the word.
Anyone here today? Wondering why F is consistently down on days when it should be up considering TM problems. TM up again today with all its probles? Doesnt make sense to me.
Take a look at the other posts I made about Toyota and Ford. It answers your question. Would love if you joined as a follower and helped support the site. Anyone else you could let know about it would help.
Posts
26 comments:
Ford has not "backed it's future"
on the Fusion. Ford is basing it's
long term viability on providing a
balanced and diversified mix of high
quality, fair priced vehicles.
Stockguy911, congratulations on the
launch of this blog. The design and
set up of the blog is well conceived.
I have been surprised at the number of posts on the Ford msg board on Yahoo about how to stop a runaway car, regardless of the manufacturer. Having been in one, the human mind does not think in a logical manner about which procedure should be followed and in what order.
Nor have many people considered when any item is mass produced there will be some items that slip through the cracks. There is no such thing as a perfect product.
IMHO, Ford needs Toyota to stay in the game to keep pressure on them to continue the improvements in the products Ford makes. The net winner is the consumer.
Your incites and good thoughts and comments are much appreciated, thanks JSt 60
GLAD TO SEE THIS HAPPEN MARC.....BEST OF LUCK......
BRENDA IN VA
Stock, Thank You for taking time and giving us the advice with the level head. I will watch for your posts and use it. This is a exciting and rewarding time to be a Ford investor.
Thanks everyone for visiting. Please feel free to email the Blog to anyone you think might find it useful and hopefully entertaining. Keep checking back since I will be posting often about whatever I find interesting.
I'm looking for people to interview on various subjects. What's your area of expertise? Tell me and I'll find an interesting angle.
If you wish to be interviewed please send me an email at stockguy911@yahoo.com
The top management team in Ford has good vision. Last year, they forsaw Ford would make money in 2009 and do better this year, otherwise, it wouldn't start employee 401k match and merit increase this year.
Thanks Marc for helping us.
Best,
Lee
very good SG, and thanks for putting together a place with some sanity!
Thanks Marc for helping me out when I first started trading. I am happy to see you have your site up and running. There are those in this world who talk and those that do. You are the latter
Mark in California.
Thanks again everyone. Please sign up as a follower so you can see whatever relevant that may guide you and your friends/family.
I've set a section for questions too. So go ahead and submit yours. Feedback is all what this is about.
Nice site. Better than Yahoo. Hard to find a decent site just aboout Ford and not about the politics. Congrats Stockguy.
Marc,
The best of luck with this beautiful initiative.
This morning while looking at a one year chart on IBD, there is a clear double bottom pattern setting up. We are in the extreme right leg of it now. How high the price will move, I am not sure. If I use flag trading techniques, I should expect to see it move to $13 pps but the slope of the leg is so steep that I believe it will surpass $13.
The other item of note from IBD is that they show a RS (not RSI) of 97. In their terminology, any stock with a RS greater than 80 is worthy of examination. Same applies to its EPS rating which Ford is rated at 81.
As these ratings are normalized against roughly 8,000 stocks that IBD monitors you are able to see how Ford compares to the entire database of 8,000 stocks. For the record, there is no 100 rating. The top rating is a 99.
These ratings put Ford is good company.
OT: Marc, I agree with you on Cisco. As the Internet continues to develop they will be the powerhouse company, as if they weren't already. It is a solid company with great management as you have noted. I have a lot of money over the years with them.
Congratulations on your blog start up. I have benefitted greatly from your insight and education on Ford. I greatly appreciate it.
Keep up the great work!
Good Job Marc
I would like to see a section where members post some of their findings on stocks that are beaten down with the potential of long term reversal. Being Im an investor not a trader
Steve
Thanks! Now I can come here and skip all the garbage on the Yahoo board!
Marc,
Congratulations on starting your blog. I'll be following it closely and appreciate the valuable information that you have shared with me and many others during the past year.
Mark from PA
Steve: I would rather see this JUST a Ford board. This is Mark's board, so it's up to him. This board is the result of the crap on the Yahoo board. JSt 60
we need a serious close to keep from falling further. With fear still fresh,I can see this going much lower. Any thoughts?
I think we have a short lived rally tom, then sell off once again. This is just the beginning folks.
What is your take on Sprint Nextel? This is one of those beaten down stocks that looks very interesting. Rumors have them interested in LEAP wireless to take out one of it's lower cost competitors. (S) looks to me to be one of the few "value" plays in the S&P 500. Also, what appears to be intriquing, is the 4G Wimax roll-out that is ahead of VZ and T in schedule along with "smartgrid" and M2M (machine-to-machine) communications that is expecting to see a vast increase in the near future. Risky? Perhaps so. What say you? It was stated that Blackrock recently increased its holdings by 51 million shares. Interesting.
Hi Steve,
Thanks for coming and everyone's comments and participation is appreciated. If you would like to write a piece and have it posted I invite all to email me at stockguy911@yahoo.com.
Feel free to post comments on the Blog associated with your subject matter.
If you wish to be interviewed so I can share your knowledge for the Blog just let me know so we can talk about your area of expertise.
The more people you email about the site the better for it's continued success. If you would like for me to profile a particular company, industry, trade, investment please go right ahead and send me an email.
I'm very excited to hear from all of you and remember to join as a follower. Thank you all for following and spreading the word.
Best Regards,
Marc Roth
Seems that Ford is a stock today, Heavy Trading already.Hope we can finish possitive today somehow.
OK< Stockguy Im in...thanks for creating a "FORD" site!
Anyone here today? Wondering why F is consistently down on days when it should be up considering TM problems. TM up again today with all its probles? Doesnt make sense to me.
Take a look at the other posts I made about Toyota and Ford. It answers your question. Would love if you joined as a follower and helped support the site. Anyone else you could let know about it would help.
Thanks for coming
Marc
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