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PIGS GET FAT, HOGS GET SLAUGHTERED, BE A PIG!

February 5, 2010

Speculative Trading idea-Airgas Inc. (ARG)

 

I like to look for opportunities to make small gains quickly if possible. Basically anomalies in the market occur every day, several times a day. Overbought, oversold it really doesn't matter the important factor is simple-Make money. That's how I get paid.

Sometimes I will look for swings in stocks that I perceive to be overbought or sold based on the news that I have at that time. In this case we have a take over play for a company called Airgas (ARG) by Air Products Inc. (APD). Airgas in the countries largest distributor of industrial, medical and specialty gases.

This is a hostile takeover for cash and stock @ $62 per share and may raise it's bid based on reports. Airgas has already said they don't want to be taken over so the two sides have been talking for some time. Both offers by APD we're turned down. We have a situation that allows us to take a look at a short on ARG and/or a long on APD. 
I already had a long position on APD and with the drop will take a further long position. I took a small position on the put side of ARG with the thought in mind that they will put in place a poison pill and this deal will fall apart. Hostile takeovers are pretty tough to do and if they fight it typically the stocks pull off so it's a very speculative play. 

Also of note apparently according to Henry Schwartz President of Trade alert there have been a lot of action in the options in the last week so someone knew something most probably. Heavy option action is the first place regulators look for insider trading activity. Just to give you an idea the Feb. 50 calls which were basically worthless yesterday are now trading at $10.10-$10.40.

With that in mind one of my favorite movies is Wall Street. I own the DVD and have watched it since I was I was kid. The next one is coming into theaters this year. Can't wait to see it. Boiler room is not as good but I own that too and give you some real insight into the mirco cap world and how it works. Vin Diesel is in it and it tells a story based on real people and companies they "brought public."

Enjoy them









2 comments:

Sagezeke said...

Ford Fusion Hybrid and brake problems.

In reading some of the material on the Internet yesterday, I learned the early 2010 models of the Fusion Hybrid shared the same problems as the Toyota Prius in that there was a software problem.

I called the dealership where I purchased mine and was told to bring it in at my convenience ASAP. This was late yesterday afternoon and we were expecting another ice storm overnight.

I took it in this morning and 30 minutes later drove out. It is my understanding that Toyota customers are having to wait upon letters from their dealers before going in for the software upgrades. Why? The volume of Prius cars sold with the problem vs Ford. According to the info I was reading, Ford discovered the problem in August of last 2009 and made the correction for subsequent cars. Toyota did not.

I am not posting this to knock Toyota for it is my belief that Ford will benefit by having a strong competitor, not a weak one.

I will also say that from the time I first bought the Fusion Hybrid until this morning, I have not experienced a braking problem with it and I have driven it in all types of road conditions from large cities to the Appalachian Mountains.

STOCKGUY911 said...

I don't think that Toyota has the fix yet. Not sure so if you could let everyone know it would be appreciated.

Quite a day.

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