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February 16, 2010

Toyota Motors (TM)-More problems ahead



Toyota's (TM) spokesman Mike Goss confirmed today that they will suspend production for 3 additional days in addition to it's scheduled production breaks during the weeks of March 15 and April 12. The Kentucky and San Antonio plants will be affected. The Kentucky plant produces the Avalon, Camry and Venza while the Texas plant makes the Tundra truck.

Dealers have been dealing with the recall issue in relation to the gas pedal, breaks and floor mats. The workers will be kept on the payroll and paid during this additional unscheduled production lapse.

Obviously they have inventory building up since they stopped selling the vehicles and how many people are willing to buy a Toyota with the ongoing investigation still under way is to be seen. From past experiences the automakers typically
underestimate the fallout from such issues.

Federal regulators have now received 34 complainants of deaths attributable to unintended acceleration. That number is surely to move higher. As more people become aware of the issue's I have to believe that many will join the class action lawsuits that the attorneys have already started to advertise about.

Toyota estimated today that they have repaired 500,000 of the 2.3 million vehicles that it's recalling.

I would keep a close eye on this situation and any opportunity for Ford in this matter. We have already seen that Hyundai is experiencing an increase in sales as a result of the Toyota issues.

Toyota will have be to aggressive in it's public relations and marketing to attract people back to the brand. In some cases people may avoid the manufacturer completely. We are talking about people's safety and if you have a family why take a chance?

I have to figure that when March sales come out in a few weeks we will see the "Toyota affect" on Ford. I haven't seen any of the analysts February sales estimates increase based on the Toyota problems so this may be an opportunity to get a nice bump in Ford in the coming weeks.

If anyone has information or has seen anything in relation to an increase in sales estimates please comment about this or feel free to email me it and I will be sure to post it for everyone.

Marc Roth


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10 comments:

Lisa said...

In MHO You are full of it!!!!! GL on your blogging venture

STOCKGUY911 said...

Can you be a little more specific about: "In MHO You are full of it"?

That covers a lot of ground so if you can actually point to what exactly I'm full of that would be great.

You don't need to use many question marks and exclamations points. Everyone gets your point without them.

Also, we had three people address your other confusion about why stock prices go up or down and how. Hopefully your confusion has been cleared up. We saw no feedback on that subject so I'm guessing you now understood all the explanations.


Thanks,

Marc

Lisa said...

Ok let's just say You are full of yourself and now have started your own blog, hoping to profit from all the people who follow you!!!!

STOCKGUY911 said...

How is it that you think I'm "full of myself"? That's also very general and tells me nothing.

I post as I always have what I see based on the facts at that time. From the comments and emails I've received over the last year and half most people appreciate it.

As for profiting from writing. I'm not being paid to write my opinion by anyone. Any site generating traffic as this one does creates opportunity for monetization. You are certainly welcome to start your own and I will be glad to join.

I took the time to create a forum free from Political name calling, attacks by other posters, the ability for people to exchange idea's and ask questions or have their own thoughts posted on the Blog.

I don't recall receiving any comments from you yet that are positive or insightful to any of the subject manner. People including myself took the time to help you and I don't recall you following up on your own questions.

Again, you don't need to put multiple explanation points to make your point. I'll ask that you refrain from it in the future.

Thank you,

Marc

shooterclay said...

marc, i think what she MEANT to say was that you're full of knowledge and she is very appreciative of your sharing it with us like we all are :)

anyway, i really thing the feb numbers will be the first real litmus test of the problems that toyota is really in as well as how much FORD has to gain.

the jan numbers only included a week or so of the major TM recalls which have gotten much worse this month. i personally think TM sales will be down big time. i can only imagine what their financial results are going to be for q1 after the bottom line squeeze from the costs of the recalls as well as the top line squeeze from the lost sales.

FORD will get a bump, i'm just not sure how much as the lost sales from TM will be split up between FORD, hyandae (sp?), honda, GM, etc..

there's still the other shoe to drop with all the hearings (and political posturing) that will start next month, all the lawsuits that are starting to gain more steam, as well as not knowing if TM really has the problems fixed.

F is a good place to be right now..

STOCKGUY911 said...

Thanks Shooter. Not sure what Lisa is all about.

I agree with your view on F. Feb. will show part of the effect from Toyota. As you see there are new stories coming daily.

Very possible that this could have some lasting affect.

I appreciate your support on the site. Feel free to leave comments or questions.

Marc

Unknown said...

She may just be one of the Yahoo! yahoos. I'm surprised more of those kooks haven't found their way over here. I hesitated to comment until this point, but based on one or two broad questions, she proceeded to criticize all your subsequent comments, and now has moved on to making accusations about your intentions. It reads more and more like many of the unfounded slams from the F board on Yahoo.

STOCKGUY911 said...

Seems like that may be the case with Lisa. She asks a question, gets the answer or several of them and them says forget it and adds insults.

I'm not sure what purpose that serves but I have reservations at this point as to what her intentions are.

I'd be more than happy to help her but she doesn't seem to accept the facts.

Thanks,

Marc

Unknown said...

Unintended acceleration? failure in braking systems? Wow, what an exhilarating vehicle to own! It’s like playing Russian roulette while skydiving. Awesome!

Marc, I agree that TM has problems that will help Ford sales for a long time to come, but, do you think ford a buy at present levels? (11.74) or should we expect some consolidation before the next leg up? Like we seen in Aug thru Nov? (dead money) I’m expecting a shakeout back to 10 ½ before the pop to $14.

Another reason I’m hesitant at these levels is the lack of jobs. If we don’t see a significant increase in job numbers soon, I think the bull market is out of steam.

In addition, is anyone concerned with the recent insider sales? On 1/7/10 there was a flat out sale worth 2.7 M.

One of the biggest mistakes I made this year was getting shook out of ford when it was at 2.43 and not getting back in. I’ve been painfully watching it rise month after month.

So,
a) inch in at these levels?
-or-
b) wait for job number reports to confirm rally

OT, “what makes a stock go up or down” ~ seriously? What a sad yet entertaining question to ask on an investment blog.

Thanks for the blog Marc, good stuff here!

GL

-Mike

Unknown said...

ok, I got in at $12.20, I'll hold it for a year and hope for the best.

GO Ford!!!!!!!!!!!!

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