Ford to take back 2nd place in the Auto market

A very smart man and successful once told me: "1+1 always equals 2. When it doesn't then something is wrong."

Today we see that 40 people have already filed a lawsuit against Toyota (TM). This will most likely be a class action lawsuit. Knowing how many Toyota's have been sold in the country just in the last year you can almost guarantee that there will be more people coming forward.

Then we have the insurance companies. You have to love this business as Warren Buffet has in becoming the wealthiest man in the country because of it. The why is simple.

Send me money every month, quarter or year and I'll pay for your accidents if something happens. If it does maybe I'll pay you and maybe I won't. If there's a way for me to keep you in court for the next how ever many years maybe I'll get lucky and you'll die. Then I just keep everything. Either that or make a settle far below what the contract says. Anyone who has had to deal with Health, Life, Auto, Homeowners, etc. insurance knows that getting paid on a claim is more difficult than trying to win a World Series except of course if your my New York Yankees.

We see Ford's (F) stock still under pressure in my opinion because of the selling pressure from the filing made by State Street on behalf of VEBA. 109+ million  shares hitting the market will create that. On the other hand Toyota (TM) has been moving up because of what may seem like an oversold situation and a 15% drop which has now retraced itself up from $70 to $77.

Well 1+1 is not equaling 2. TM has the bad news and going up. Ford has nothing but good news and going down or trading flat.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tm                 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=f

Today we can see the future and Ford is poised to move back into second place in auto sales. I'd like to see that happen since it would be nice to see an American auto maker put out a great product and service the customer. Clearly that is what Ford is trying to do. Even the UAW realizes that in order to survive they have to work with the company in order to survive.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ford-seen-overtaking-toyota-in-us-2010-02-11

Yes I think the market as a whole is still somewhat too high and we need a final pullback so we can move higher. However clearly Ford has turned the page and they just crushed their numbers for the Qtr. How long will it be before they start paying a dividend on the preferred? My guess is before the year is out based on cash flow and debt reduction.

Eventually the markets always right themselves to make 1+1=2. When is always the question. My belief is in the next few weeks to a month. Long term F is certainly the Auto company you want to own. The preferred gives you nothing right now in terms of a dividend so I would own the common until we get closer to some type of payment.

I'll wait for the selling pressure to end and let this market make it's correction and then get long on some Ford.









































As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.

Idea for the close-Cheesecake factory (CAKE)

I for one am not buying this upturn on the news about Greece. The reality is we still have some issue's here and jobs are the biggest one. So it's nice to see a bump up across the board for the most part but as we have seen before every time we get a bump up it comes right off.

Today was the first 2 days rally since the first two days of the month of February.

Retail sales looked stronger than expected but people are still not spending money since they are still worried about their jobs. Even with the jobless report today we are still seeing people having problems finding employment.

Cheesecake factory (CAKE) reports after the bell. This casual restaurant has long been the darling of Wall Street however they suspended opening up newly planned restaurants because of the economic downtown. Long term this is a good play but their 4th Qtr. numbers to me will not be as good as anticipated and with the run up today an opportunity to make some money on the pullback.

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cake

So I bought CAKE FEB 20 PUTS @ $.15 AND THE 22.5 PUTS @ $.74.

Also, AA made big move today so I added to the FEB 13 PUTS @ $.13

If you made some moves or have some idea's to share go right ahead and let everyone know.






As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.

Lisa asked about what makes a stock go up or down

The reason I started to post was for people just like Lisa. Here's a woman that wants to participate in the market and make money investing over time. Her question is simple however most people don't really know why stocks go up or down. This is the type of inquiry that is really important to the Individual Investor. That's why I post to educate and entertain.

The Blog is for a community of people to exchange idea's and seek advice. I've met several of you and I have to say their are some great people out their who have become tired of the "experts" paraded on TV who make a recommendation and then when it's wrong ignore it. Those of you who have been following me n the past know that I say when I've made a mistake, book my loss and move on. To me that's the ultimate in credibility.

If you take a look at the top of the site it's called "Taking Control of your portfolio". "A Blog created for the Individual Investor to help navigate through the rough and difficult world of investing. Topics covered will be Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, Political ramifications and Market Sentiment. Past experience's have shown that not one factor alone can give you all the information that is needed to navigate through the decision making process of buy, sell or hold. Should you need help on a individual basis just send me a email." Marc Roth

Stocks move up and down based on a variety of a factors which is why I look at several. Fundamentals, Techinical Analysis (Charts), Politics (Worldwide news) and Sentiment. Sentiment is the toughest of them all. That's why CNBC has become so important since it gives you insight in to what people on the trading floor and you the investor are feeling about a stock or the market as a whole.

Stocks move up and down based first on the Fundamenatal (Financials) picture of that company and the view looking forward. Technicals provide guides to entry and exit prices. Politics affect the overall market, companies and industry, think Toyota. Sentiment shows direction, perceptions and intent. Perceptions many times become reality. That's why it's so important and takes the most time to learn.  

If you're going to handle your portfolio alone with no advice then you need to study. Like anything else it's a matter of what you put into something. Again, you won't be right all the time. The idea is to gather as much information as possible to give yourself the best chance of being right. All that matters is profits. That is why you invest and how I get paid too.

If I'm running your portfolio all you want is for me to make you money whether it's trading or a long term portfolio. That's the way it should be. You have to hold yourself to the same account.

Lisa and whoever seeks knowledge take a look at these periodicals. If you decide you want to buy and read them then that's fine. Either way if you start to look at some of the subject matter, Google it and then read what it means then you will start to learn. Many of you are very smart just not educated in the ways of investing. Most just say I like this stock or product buy and it and forget about it. Not smart and a good way to lose money which is why so many become frustrated.

As always you can ask me questions. You won't understand all the material but if you get gain some knowledge it will help. I try to learn one new thing every day. I never know when it will come in handy.

Thanks for the great question Lisa! Spread the word about the site and keep the questions coming.

Marc Roth



















As your agreement for the receipt and use of market data provides, the securities markets (1) reserve all rights to the market data that they make available; (2) do not guarantee that data; and (3) shall not be liable for any loss due either to their negligence or to any cause beyond their control.
This research is being provided to you for informational purposes only.